The key words being probably never, and do not confuse bugging out with evacuation. You would evacuate because of a wildfire, flood and tornado for example, with every intention of returning home in a matter of days or even hours.
You would evacuate and head inland for a few days to escape a hurricane, or move to higher ground to let flood waters recede, this is not the same as bugging out because society has collapsed or because you feel it might collapse in the city in which you live.
If you have to bug-out because of hostilities or extremely dangerous conditions on the ground then you are essentially a refugee, unless you have a specific place, other than a government-established camp, that you can go to that provides shelter, has infrastructure, water, food and other essentials.
If the conditions were so bad that you and others had to flee your area then it is not likely, any other area would be able to provide you with the much-needed necessities without some type of governmental intervention.
Let’s face it; life is not as it was hundreds and even thousands of years ago. Back then, if droughts wiped out the crops or the winters became too cold you could pick up and move to another valley further south.
Entire villages routinely migrated so they could collect ripening food sources and to follow animal migrations. Today we all are essentially trapped in one area, and cannot simply pick up, move, and settle in a more hospitable area because of a crisis. We are essentially victims of society’s as well as our own successes.
In the 1930’s the Midwest was under a severe drought, crops dried up and topsoil was blown away by strong winds creating what was called the Dust Bowl. People by the tens of thousands fled the devastated areas.
Farmers and their families migrated to populated areas, looking for work, food and shelter. Camps were set up outside of cities, shantytowns and hobo camps dotted the landscape for miles around each town or community.
People fled to where other people were. They bugged out, from one place, only to find the conditions were even worse in some cases in the places where they ended up. Unemployment was 25 percent at the time and this is a conservative figure. Some have estimated that over two million people became displaced completely; they became hobos in other words.
The Question is What Would You Do
Do you have a place to go to that is any better than the one you are leaving. You have gathered supplies, gear and materials that would have to be left behind. You may assume you can carry it all in a vehicle with a trailer. However, if you are able to drive from your current home to a so-called safe haven, then the conditions were not likely bad enough to where you had to leave in the first place.
It is a paradox, because if the conditions on the ground warrant you leaving then you probably cannot leave because of the conditions on the ground, unless it is on foot. Most people would not get far on foot.
If the crisis overwhelms the country then your area of the country is likely to be overwhelmed as well. You could set out on foot, but then what. In most cases, your supplies would be gone before you made it past the city limits. Some people at this point would probably turn around and try to get back home, but it may be too late.
Experts and others with an opinion recommend you find a remote area to settle in, in other words they tell you to bug-out to the woods. To the very woods that others will possibly be fleeing too as well. Moving a populated area essentially from one place to another is what might end up happening. Hobo camps, and shantytowns would spring up.
Sheltering in place is not as romantic as bugging out. Bugging-out brings to mind the wide-open spaces, freedom of movement, no angry desperate people and no cops, until it, all changes and people start to gather in remote areas, just as you did.
Food will be scarce and water quality questionable in any area in which you end up. For those that think they can hunt for game probably need to reconsider this idea. There are over 300 million people in the United States all needing food, and the population of deer for example, is not even 10 percent of the population of humans. Animals will migrate away from humans and the ones that do not, will be killed off quickly if society collapses. In all likelihood, you will not be able to provide enough food daily for you and your family, by hunting.
You would have to migrate to find game and where does that leave you, because everyone else has already figured this out as well. Game would be plentiful if the crisis reduced the human population by a significant amount. The only way you could survive by roaming around the country is if the competition for resources was considerably reduced.
If you shelter in place, you will of course have dangerous situations to deal with, but you may very well have friends and neighbors to help or at the very least, you will have the advantage of knowing the area.
The country may collapse but not all communities will collapse entirely, people will gather for protection, to share knowledge and to help one another.
There may be situations that require you to leave and leave quickly but what is most likely to happen is the question. Bugging-out should always be the very last option and never the first one, because you do not want to flee one crisis only to find yourself in the jaws of another even more deadly situation.
If you were to analyze the situation carefully, you would probably find it is safer to shelter in place rather than leaving a known situation, however devastating it may be, for one in which you have no idea how devastating it is.
If you were alone, had good health and had some supply caches that you could resupply yourself with, then you could essentially roam the area, but to what end is what you have to ask yourself. The area you bugged out from is not the only dangerous area.
In a grid down scenario wherever you end up could be as devastating as any other area. To get there you would use up supplies, energy and you may be put into a situation where you will have to scramble almost by the hour to provide for yourself.